Tensions across the Strait

 
This is the latest from the Taipei Times:

US military chief confirms build-up

 Admiral Robert Willard also said Taiwan would need to improve its fighter jet capabilities to counter military imbalances with China.The top commander of US military forces in the Pacific on Thursday confirmed reports that the Chinese army has been upgrading and deploying larger numbers of missiles across the Taiwan Strait. “The PLA has focused considerable effort on building up its integrated air defense capabilities and has deployed an increasing number of upgraded Russian SA-20 PMU 2 along the Taiwan Strait,” Admiral Robert Willard said, ­confirming ­earlier reports by a Canadian defense magazine that said China has deployed eight battalions of advanced missile systems in Fujian Province.

Willard also said that Taiwan must someday improve upon its existing fighter jets to keep pace with China’s increasing air power. Some of China’s other military modernization programs highlighted by Willard’s testimony to the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee include the development of sophisticated shipboard air defense systems as well as supersonic ­anti-ship cruise missiles.

Yesterday, media reports in Washington said that some US officials are insisting that China’s buildup of both conventional and nuclear forces is aimed solely at possible conflict with Taiwan.

I have yet to speak to a local resident here that believes Taiwan and the PRC will go to war. Everybody here always says the two countries share far too many common factors - not least that they are joined economically at the hip ( and probably a few other places). In addition, nobody here is that deranged to believe that any armed conflict would go the way of Taiwan. A middle-ranking officer in the Taiwan armed forces told me (not that confidentially) that a war with China would be unlikely to last more than two days.

That's a weekend we're talking about here.

So, much of the weapon talk is posturing and political noise-making. There is also a story (that was told to me by another member of the military) that the close ties in culture, and often family, between Taiwan and the PRC make Taiwan a security risk. By that I mean that the US may be reluctant at times to make cutting edge military technology available to Taiwan for fear that it may end up in China. This could explain why Taiwan is using 2nd generation (or perhaps 3rd) Patriot missile defense systems - when probably the Saudis and certainly the Israeli's have the latest of everything - with all the bells and whistles.

So there is little chance of the following happening right now. From the Taipei Times again:

Meanwhile, [DPP legislator] Tsai said that Willard’s testimony should give the government ample reasons to pursue an aggressive weapons modernization campaign, adding that the MND should explore different ways of acquiring the new F-16s and even F-35s, the US’ newest combat fighter jet.